TL;DR
PLTR — Due-diligence report
Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR) · Run date 2026-08-09
Adversarial DD: a quantified bull case, a quantified bear case, a
cross-examination, and a computed "priced-in" analysis. Deterministic scripts own
all data and arithmetic; the sections own interpretation. Every figure traces to
data/PLTR/ (companyfacts XBRL, metrics.json, market.json, history.json,
policy.json) or a document fetched this run (cited with access date). The
data-as-of manifest is embedded in 2026-08-09.json.
Refresh note. This report supersedes the 2026-07-09 run. Two refreshes (2026-08-02, 2026-08-09) refetched every input; two things moved materially: (i) the price re-rated $129 → $172.01 (mcap ~$296B → ~$395B), and (ii) Q2 FY2026 has printed (10-Q filed 2026-08-04; earnings 8-K 2026-08-03) — revenue $1,935,464,000, +92.8% YoY, the fastest in company history. All figures below are recomputed from the refreshed on-disk files.
Basis adopted throughout (stated once).
- Price anchor:
market.jsoncurrentPrice$172.01,marketCap$394,947,000,700 (as_of2026-08-09). 2026-08-09 is a weekend and $172.01 equals the settled 2026-08-07history.jsonclose — a settled close, not an intraday quote. - The central trap — the EV basis.
metrics.jsonreportsenterprise_value$420,004,075,000 andev_to_revenue93.85 onev_basis: "provider". That provider EV is frozen — byte-identical across the 07-09 / 08-02 / 08-09 reads; it never tracked price. It now sits $25,057,074,300 above market cap, imputing ~$25.1B of net debt to a company whoseLongTermDebtNoncurrentlapsed to $0 at 2021-12-31 and which carries only a $211,400,000 operating lease. It is an artifact (it overstates the reconciled FY2025 multiple 1.089×) and is never used as PLTR's multiple. - EV basis adopted: the reconciled EV = market cap − net cash: $385,537,901,700 (provider share basis) → 62.63× TTM revenue / 86.15× FY2025 revenue, or $403,913,213,970 (10-Q share basis) → 65.61× TTM / 90.25× FY2025. The live multiple is EV/TTM ~62.6–65.6×; the FY2025 reading (~86–90×) is backward-looking now that two quarters have printed.
- Net cash: +$9,409,099,000 = cash $2,030,047,000 + marketable securities
$7,379,052,000 (both 2026-06-30, 10-Q), against zero funded debt — computed from
companyfacts, not the metrics
cashline ($1,423,796,000, which excludes ~$7.38B of securities and understates liquidity ~$7.99B). - TTM revenue: $6,155,941,000 (FY2025 $4,475,446,000 + H1'26 $3,568,047,000 − H1'25 $1,887,552,000) — the live multiple base.
- Share basis: provider
sharesOutstanding2,296,070,000 sits 106,827,000 (~4.45%) below the 10-QCommonStockSharesOutstanding2,402,897,000 — a ~$18.4B mcap swing; mcap is on the provider basis, so 62.63× TTM is the lower bound and 65.61× the more demanding.
TL;DR
Bull, in one line. PLTR is compounding revenue +56.2% YoY (FY2025 $4,475,446,000) and accelerating — Q1 FY2026 +84.7%, Q2 FY2026 +92.8% ($1,935,464,000, the fastest in company history, US commercial +149% YoY) — at 82.37% gross / 31.59% operating margins (expanding to 85.63% / 46.69% in H1'26), a strict-GAAP Rule of 40 of ~87.8 (FY25) / ~135.7 (H1'26), GAAP net income $1,625,033,000, a net-cash sheet of +$9,409,099,000 that self-funds growth, a third consecutive FY2026 guide raise to $8.150–8.158B (+82%), and a Q2 print that broke the beat-and-selloff pattern with a +29.5% one-day move.
Bear, in one line. Conceding all of that, the residual is the price: even on the reconciled EV, PLTR trades ~62.6–65.6× TTM revenue (~86–90× FY2025), ~243× GAAP net income, a 0.53% FCF yield — and the deceleration math is unforgiving (a fade to 30%/yr for three years then a re-rate to a still-premium 25× is −12.3%; even holding 40%/yr and re-rating to 20× is −4.3%/yr; compression alone, revenue and margins held flat, is −60% to −68%), so you can be right on growth and still lose.
What's priced in (the swing factor). On the adopted ~$385.54B EV the market is underwriting ~3–8× revenue expansion off the live ~$6.2B TTM before a mature multiple supports it: revenue must reach $25.70B (4.18× TTM, ~4.2 years of 40% growth) to justify today's EV at a mature-premium 15×, or $34–46B (~5–9 years) at the MSFT/ORCL 8.30–11.34× megacap floor. The whole verdict turns on one unobserved variable — how long >30–40% growth lasts. This report takes no buy/sell/hold position; it frames that fork.
Watch next (from the decisive ledger + catalyst calendar; the Q2 FY2026 print resolved this cycle, so the live forward test is now Q3):
| Window | Event | If it lands bullish | If it lands bearish |
|---|---|---|---|
| ~early Nov 2026 (Q3 print; date SPECULATED — cadence-inferred, aggregators estimate Nov 2–9, none company-confirmed) | Q3 FY2026 earnings print vs the $2.160–2.164B guide (≈ +83% YoY off Q3 FY2025 $1,181,092,000) | Revenue beats the guide, US-commercial stays elevated, FY2026 $8.150–8.158B guide raised a fourth time → durability leg intact | In-line/decelerating off the +92.8% Q2 pace, US-commercial cooling, or no raise → first crack in the growth the multiple requires |
| RESOLVED 2026-08-03/04 | Q2 FY2026 print (already printed, +29.5% one-day move) | Resolved bullish: revenue +92.8% to $1,935,464,000, +7.6% above guide midpoint, third guide raise — broke the beat-and-selloff pattern | Caution carried: the two prior beats sold off (Feb −17.7%, May −6.9%); the re-rate to $172.01 is the multiple refusing to compress — Q3 tests whether it holds |
| ~mid-Feb 2027 → FY2027 (FY2026 10-K, decisive horizon) | Realized growth vs the >40%-hold / fade-to-30% line | Growth holds >40% and EV/TTM stays >50× → the "no software co sustains this multiple" base rate breaks in real time | Growth fades toward 25–30% → bear compression math (−12% to −38% at 20–25× exits) governs even on continued compounding |
| Any future 8-K/10-Q | Buyback authorization deploying the +$9.4B net cash | Repurchase shrinks the ~7.28% overhang → SBC-dilution leg refuted | None (baseline: no buyback in any of the 40 filings through 2026-08-04, all index entries examined) → net cash sits idle vs the overhang |