TL;DR
PLTR — Due-diligence report
Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR) · Run date 2026-07-09
Adversarial DD: a quantified bull case, a quantified bear case, a
cross-examination, and a computed "priced-in" analysis. Deterministic scripts own
all data and arithmetic; the sections own interpretation. Every figure traces to
data/PLTR/ (companyfacts XBRL, metrics.json, market.json, history.json,
policy.json) or a document fetched this run (cited with access date). The
data-as-of manifest is embedded in 2026-07-09.json.
Basis adopted throughout (stated once).
- Price anchor:
market.jsoncurrentPrice$129.04,marketCap$296,284,872,800 (as_of2026-07-09) — an intraday quote, not a settled close (thehistory.json2026-07-09 row is $129.04 after the same-day refresh). - The central trap — the EV basis.
metrics.jsonreportsenterprise_value$420,004,075,000 andev_to_revenue93.85 onev_basis: "provider". That provider EV sits $123,719,202,200 above market cap — it imputes ~$123.7B of net debt to a company whoseLongTermDebtNoncurrentlapsed to $0 at 2021-12-31 and which carries only a $211,977,000 operating lease. It is an artifact (it overstates the reconciled multiple 1.457×) and is never used as PLTR's multiple. - EV basis adopted: the reconciled EV = market cap − net cash: $288,258,459,800 (provider share basis) → 64.41× FY2025 revenue, or $301,299,629,320 (10-Q share basis) → 67.32×. Every multiple below is on this ~64–67× basis.
- Net cash: +$8,026,413,000 = cash $2,291,631,000 + marketable securities
$5,734,782,000 (both 2026-03-31, 10-Q), against zero funded debt — computed from
companyfacts, not the metrics
cashline ($1,423,796,000, which excludes ~$5.73B of securities). - Share basis: provider
sharesOutstanding2,296,070,000 sits 101,063,000 (~4.22%) below the 10-QCommonStockSharesOutstanding2,397,133,000 — a ~$13.0B mcap swing; mcap is on the provider basis, so 64.41× is the lower bound and 67.32× the more demanding.
TL;DR
Bull, in one line. PLTR is compounding revenue +56.2% YoY (FY2025 $4,475,446,000) and re-accelerating — Q1 FY2026 +84.7% to $1,632,583,000, US commercial +137% (Q4) — at 82.37% gross / 31.59% operating margins, a strict-GAAP Rule of 40 of ~87.8, GAAP net income $1,625,033,000, and a net-cash sheet of +$8,026,413,000 that self-funds the growth with no dilution-for-cash raise in any of the 40 filings through 2026-06-09.
Bear, in one line. Conceding all of that, the residual is the price: even on the reconciled EV, PLTR trades ~64–67× FY2025 revenue (≈55× TTM), ~182× GAAP net income, a 0.71% FCF yield — and the deceleration math is unforgiving (a fade to 28%/yr for three years then a re-rate to a still-premium 25× is −18.6%; even holding 30%/yr is −14.7%), so you can be right on growth and still lose.
What's priced in (the swing factor). On the adopted ~$288.26B EV the market is underwriting ~3–7× revenue growth before a mature multiple supports it: revenue must reach $19.22B (4.29× FY2025, ~4.3 years of 40% growth) to justify today's EV at a mature-premium 15×, or $32.03B (~5.8 years) at the MSFT/ORCL 9× megacap ceiling. The whole verdict turns on one unobserved variable — how long >30–40% growth lasts. This report takes no buy/sell/hold position; it frames that fork.
Watch next (from the decisive ledger + catalyst calendar):
| Window | Event | If it lands bullish | If it lands bearish |
|---|---|---|---|
| ~early Aug 2026 (cadence-inferred; no company date filed, index ends 2026-06-09; aggregators estimate Aug 3–10) | Q2 FY2026 earnings print vs the $1.797–1.801B guide (+79% YoY off Q2 FY2025 $1,003,697,000) | Revenue beats the guide, US-commercial holds ≳100% YoY, FY2026 $7.650–7.662B guide raised a third time → durability leg intact | In-line/decelerating toward the ~56% trajectory, US commercial cooling, or no raise → first crack in the growth the multiple requires |
| ~mid-Feb 2027 → FY2027 (FY2026 10-K, cadence from FY2025 10-K filed 2026-02-17) | Realized growth vs the >40%-hold / fade-to-30% line (the decisive horizon) | Growth holds >40% and EV/rev stays >50× → the "no software co sustains this multiple" base rate breaks in real time | Growth fades toward 25–30% → bear compression math (−15% to −45%) governs even on continued compounding |
| Each quarter | Reconciled EV/revenue recomputed from refreshed files | Multiple holds without a growth loss → bull price thesis intact | Compression toward the 18–25× peer band absent a growth loss → bear leg confirmed |
| Any future 8-K/10-Q | Buyback authorization deploying the ~$8.0B net cash | Repurchase shrinks the ~7.3% overhang → SBC-dilution leg refuted | None (baseline: no buyback in any of the 40 filings through 2026-06-09) → net cash sits idle vs the overhang |