TL;DR
TL;DR
At $42.77 — −46.0% off the $79.24 52-week high (2025-07-28), +5.0% off the $40.75 low (2026-06-26) — NIKE trades at 1.37× reconciled EV / FY2026 revenue ($46,398M): cheap on sales, not on earnings (P/E 20.4× reported, ~27.1× ex-IEEPA).
- Bull. FY2026 arrested the FY2025 −9.8% decline (9M +0.6%, full year +0.2%; NA +5%, wholesale +6%); ~200 bps of the −253 bps margin compression was court-voided IEEPA tariff whose refund is now substantially collected in cash ($302M by 5/31/2026, "substantially all" of the $684M receivable after year-end — FY2026 10-K), and you are paid 3.83% to wait on a balance sheet that is net cash including STI.
- Bear. The stabilization is bought with margin: on +0.6% revenue, 9M net income fell −32.2% and OCF −62.0%; the reported margin "expansion" is entirely the one-time $986M item — collection makes it final, so FY2027 reported EPS resets from $2.10 toward ~$1.58 unless operations fill the gap — while every challenger (On +30%, Hoka +15.9%, New Balance +19%, adidas +14% cn) out-grows a flat NIKE Brand, and Section 301/232 re-imposition (authorities the ruling did not vacate) stays live.
- Priced-in break-even. At reconciled EV $63.67B the price is justified iff gross margin round-trips to FY2025's 42.73% at a ~17× value multiple or holds near ~41% at a ~22× scarce-brand multiple — the straddle cells sit within ~1% of the price ($42.32 hold-at-22×; $42.99 recover-at-17×). Both together support $45–$51; deterioration supports $31–$35 (16–18×). The single swing factor is gross margin; the calendar fulcrum is the ~2026-08-22 USTR window plus the Q1 FY2027 print. No buy/sell/hold — research tooling, not advice.
Watch next — a cold reader can act on these:
| Window | Event | If it lands bullish | If it lands bearish |
|---|---|---|---|
| through ~2026-08-22 | USTR Section 301 China four-year-review window (FR 2026-08806); excess-capacity and forced-labor 301 dockets behind it | Closes with no new footwear/apparel duties on Vietnam (~52% of footwear sourcing) / Indonesia (~27%) / China (~16%) — the voided ~200 bps drag stays off | Duties re-imposed under surviving authorities — the ~200 bps returns with no refund mechanism; the bear's ~$1.58 normalized base hardens |
| ~late Sept 2026 (est. Tue 2026-09-29, "estimated, not confirmed") | Q1 FY2027 earnings print — first IEEPA-clean operating read; consensus EPS ~$0.54 | Gross margin at/above the ~40.2% Q3 ex-IEEPA exit-rate — first sequential gain since Q1 FY2026's 42.18% — with revenue flat-to-up | A fourth sequential margin decline and/or revenue back negative — the +0.6% hold was a one-year channel refill |
| ~mid/late Aug 2026; raise watch ~Nov 2026 | Next quarterly dividend declaration (none since 2026-05-04; current rate $0.41) | Board holds $0.41 (3.83% indicated) and raises in Nov (25th consecutive annual increase) | Held flat / not raised — FY2026 payout ran 1.104× free cash flow, ~103.2% of ex-IEEPA EPS |
| ~Oct 2026 (Q1 FY2027 10-Q repurchase table) | Buyback restart or continued dormancy (reapproved June 2026 without expiration, ~$5.9B left; paused Q1 FY2026, none in Q4) | Repurchases resume — the cleanest signal management sees the trough | Still zero — management preserving cash through what the bull calls the trough |
| ~Nov 2026 | First numeric FY2027 framing / investor-day window | FY2027 EBIT margin framed above FY2026's 8.3% reported / 6.2% ex-IEEPA (CFO Denton's $4M award target) | EBIT margin flat-to-down; the formal estimate cut Evercore expects lands (PT $46; post-print BofA $47, Telsey $47) |