TL;DR
TL;DR
At $40.73 — −48.6% off the 52-week high ($79.17, 2025-08-25), +0.5% off a fresh 52-week low ($40.51, 2026-08-12), −46.7% YoY — NIKE trades at ~1.31× reconciled EV / FY2026 revenue ($60.65B EV / $46,398M), the low end of the athletic-footwear peer set, while paying a 4.03% indicated dividend.
- Bull, strongest point: the revenue decline is arrested (9M FY2026 +0.6%, FY2026 +0.2% reported after FY2025's −9.8%), led by North America +5% and wholesale +6%; the gross-margin compression is more tariff than structure, and the $986M IEEPA drag has been legally voided and substantially collected in cash — so on trough margins you are paid ~4% to wait for the reversal.
- Bear, strongest point: the stabilization is bought with margin, not demand — on flat revenue 9M net income fell −32.2% and OCF −62.0%; the reported FY2026 margin "expansion" is entirely the one-time $986M item (ex-IEEPA GM ~40.79%, EPS ~$1.58), Nike is still ceding performance running to double-digit growers, and at ~26× ex-IEEPA earnings — priced above a growing adidas (1.24×) — it is a value trap.
- The swing factor (priced-in, computed): at $40.73 / EV $60.65B the market underwrites either the ~$2.86B ex-IEEPA trough at ~21× or a fully-recovered ~$3.77B (gross margin back to FY2025's 42.73%) at ~16× — the two land within ~1% of today's price. The whole valuation reduces to one variable: does gross margin re-expand toward 42.73% or hold near ~41%. The tape prices neither full recovery-and-re-rating ($43–$51) nor further decay (<$38) — it sits on the fence. This is research tooling; no buy/sell/hold verdict follows.
Watch next
| Window | Event | If it lands bullish | If it lands bearish |
|---|---|---|---|
| ~2026-08-22 | USTR Section 301 China four-year-review window (List-2 terminates 2026-08-23), atop the forced-labor 301 duties effective 2026-07-24 (Vietnam ~52% / China ~16% of footwear not exempt) | Window closes with no new footwear/apparel duty → the voided ~200 bps tariff drag stays off; ex-IEEPA margin becomes the floor | Continuation or a new duty restores the ~200 bps drag with no refund mechanism → ex-IEEPA ~41% GM becomes the ceiling |
| ~2026-09-29 (est., unconfirmed) | Q1 FY2027 earnings print — first IEEPA-clean operating read (consensus EPS ~$0.54) | Gross margin stops falling (first sequential gain since 42.18%) with revenue flat-to-up | Another sequential GM decline; reported EPS resets from $2.10 toward ~$1.58 (JPMorgan FY2027 est. $1.55) |
| ~Nov 2026 | Dividend-raise decision (Aug leg declared flat $0.41 on 2026-08-06) | Board raises the $0.41 rate → signals FY2026 cash is a trough | Kept flat again → reinforces "not funded from trough FCF" (dividends/FCF 1.104) |
| ~Oct 2026 (Q1 FY2027 10-Q) | Buyback restart — $18B program reapproved (no expiration, ~$5.9B left) but dormant since Q1 FY2026 | Repurchases resume → management signals the trough is in | Buyback stays dormant → cash preserved, not treating the trough as arrived |